AS Roma vs Cagliari Prediction, Pick & Odds
AS Roma host Cagliari at Stadio Olimpico in Rome on Tuesday, October 27, in Serie A regular season round 9. Roma have scored 12 goals over their last five games in all competitions, while Cagliari have managed just four.
| Club | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
3
ROM
AS Roma
|
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 21 | W D W D D |
|
9
CAG
Cagliari
|
9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 13 | L L L D W |
Model Intel
- Roma have scored in four of their last five games across all competitions, averaging 2.4 goals per game
- Cagliari have scored 0.8 goals per game over their last five and failed to score in two of them
- Roma kept clean sheets in three of those five, while Cagliari conceded in four of theirs
- Roma have won three of the last five meetings, and four of those five stayed under 2.5 total goals
The Breakdown
Roma arrive with a busy and unusually wild recent run. Over their last five games in all competitions they won two, drew two and lost one. That loss was a 4-3 defeat at home to Real Madrid in the Champions League, and they also beat Slovan Bratislava 4-0 in the same competition. In Serie A they drew 0-0 away at Como, beat Genoa 2-0 at home and drew 3-3 away at Napoli on October 24. Cagliari are heading the other way. They won their first two of the last five, at Atalanta and at Udinese, but then drew 1-1 at home against Juventus and lost 4-0 away at Monza and 2-0 at home against Bologna. That leaves them without a goal in their last two.
The key matchup is Roma's attack against a Cagliari side that has struggled at both ends. Roma scored 12 and conceded seven over their last five. Three clean sheets sit alongside two games in which they conceded three or more, so their defending has swung between shutouts and open games. Cagliari scored four and conceded eight over the same span, none of their five games produced three or more Cagliari goals, and they kept a single clean sheet. The goal-scoring gap between the sides over that window is large, and Cagliari's lack of cutting edge is the main thing Roma's back line has to deal with.
The market sees Roma as clear favourites at home, with Cagliari firm outsiders and the draw a smaller but real possibility. The head-to-head leans the same way: Roma have three wins, one draw and one loss in the last five meetings, including a 2-0 win on February 9, although Cagliari won 1-0 on December 7. Four of those five meetings finished under 2.5 total goals, and only the 4-0 Roma win in February 2024 cleared it. Roma's recent games have been far more open than that history, and Cagliari's have been mostly low-scoring at their end, so the shape of the game could pull in either direction.
Our Pick
Pick locked in Oct 25, 2026 at 5:33 PM ET — odds can move after that; see the odds page for current prices.
Cagliari's attack is the anchor here: 0.8 goals per game over their last five, none of those five with 3+ goals scored, and now without everyday midfielder H. Winks (started 10 of 10), so Roma only need to score a couple. Four of the last five meetings with Roma stayed under this number, and Roma kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5, so the Under at +114 is the contrarian side against a market that favors the Over, with a fair price for it.
Both Teams To Score: No at -120 (DraftKings) is a separate angle. Cagliari have averaged 0.8 goals per game over their last five and failed to score in 2 of them, while AS Roma kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5.
Common Questions
More Upcoming Soccer Matches
Predictions are data-driven and for informational purposes only. No outcome is guaranteed; sports betting carries risk. Must be of legal age in your jurisdiction. Please bet responsibly.