Frosinone vs Lecce Prediction, Pick & Odds
Frosinone host Lecce at Stadio Benito Stirpe on Thursday, October 29 (1:30 PM ET) in Serie A. Frosinone's last five games have been high-scoring, while Lecce have lost three of theirs and are coming off a home defeat.
| Club | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
6
FRO
Frosinone
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 13 | +4 | 14 | D W L W D |
|
12
LEC
Lecce
|
8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 9 | L W L L W |
Model Intel
- Frosinone have scored 11 and conceded 10 over their last five, all competitions, with 3+ total goals in three of those games
- Lecce have lost three of their last five, all competitions, scoring 7 and conceding 9
- Lecce were unbeaten in the last five meetings on record (3 wins, 2 draws), though the most recent was in March 2024
- The market makes Frosinone moderate favorites at home, with a draw a real possibility
The Breakdown
Frosinone arrive in steady form: two wins, two draws and one defeat over their last five, all competitions. They have scored in four of those five and average 2.2 goals per game. The picture is of a side that gets involved in open games, and the sequence includes a 4-2 home win against Sassuolo and a 4-4 draw away at Atalanta. Lecce's last five, all competitions, are less settled: two wins and three losses, with seven goals scored and nine conceded. They failed to score in two of the five, including a 0-2 home defeat against Juventus in their most recent game, which followed a 3-0 away win at Udinese.
The key matchup is Frosinone's attack against a Lecce defense that has conceded in four of its last five. Frosinone have scored in four of five and reached three or more goals in two. Lecce's attack is more modest at 1.4 goals per game over the same window, with three or more goals in two of five. Frosinone's defense has been the looser side. They have conceded in four of five and ten times in total, with one clean sheet, so Lecce will likely find chances. Both sides have kept just one clean sheet in their last five.
The market sees Frosinone as moderate favorites at home, with Lecce a clear underdog and the draw a live outcome. Lecce did not lose any of the last five meetings on record, but the latest was a 1-1 draw in March 2024 and the others are older, so it carries limited weight now. Total goals are a different question. Four of Lecce's last five games and three of Frosinone's featured three or more combined goals, though only two of Frosinone's and one of Lecce's reached four or more. Goals look likely, but the 3.5 line is a high bar, and a tighter, lower-scoring game like the earlier meetings is plausible too.
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Match Result | Total | Both Teams Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | FRO -155 DRAW +300 LEC +340 | O – U – | YES -220 NO +170 |
| BetMGM | FRO -145 DRAW +333 LEC +333 | O 3.5 +110 U 3.5 -150 | YES -210 NO +145 |
| BetRivers | FRO -167 DRAW +325 LEC +375 | O 3.5 +115 U 3.5 -150 | YES -200 NO +145 |
| Pinnacle | FRO -146 DRAW +320 LEC +387 | O – U – | YES -216 NO +182 |
| 1xBet | FRO -128 DRAW +316 LEC +368 | O 3.5 +124 U 3.5 -132 | YES -213 NO +153 |
Our Pick
Pick locked in Oct 27, 2026 at 1:31 PM ET — odds can move after that; current prices are in the Odds Comparison above.
Frosinone have scored in 4 of their last 5 and average 2.2 goals a game. That includes a 4-2 home win over Sassuolo and a 4-4 draw at Atalanta. Lecce have lost 3 of their last 5, conceded 9 goals in that span, and play without L. Coulibaly, K. Gaspar and S. Pierotti. The market gives Frosinone 57% to win, and BetMGM has the best price at -145.
Both Teams to Score: Yes (-205 at BetRivers) is worth a look. Frosinone have scored in 4 of their last five and conceded in 4 of 5, while Lecce have conceded in 4 of their last five and scored in 3 of 5, so both defenses have been leaking.
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