Fiorentina vs Atalanta BC Prediction, Pick & Odds
Fiorentina host Atalanta BC at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence in Serie A on Thursday, October 29 (3:45 PM ET kickoff). The hosts have lost three straight, while Atalanta have conceded in each of their last five games across all competitions.
| Club | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
11
ATA
Atalanta BC
|
8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 10 | D L W L L |
|
18
FIO
Fiorentina
|
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 4 | L L L D W |
Model Intel
- Fiorentina have lost their last three, all away or at home in Serie A, including a 1-2 defeat away at Inter on October 25
- Atalanta have averaged 2.4 goals per game over their last five, all competitions, but have not kept a clean sheet in any of them
- Four of Fiorentina's last five and four of Atalanta's last five games produced three or more total goals
- The most recent meeting, on May 22, 2026, finished 1-1 at Fiorentina; Atalanta won the one before it 2-0 on November 30, 2025
The Breakdown
Fiorentina arrive on a poor run. Over their last five, all competitions, they have one win, one draw and three defeats, and all three losses came in Serie A: 2-1 away at Genoa, 3-1 at home against Como and 2-1 away at Inter. Their one win in that stretch was a 3-0 Coppa Italia result at home against Pisa, a different competition and not league form. Atalanta's last five are mixed, with two wins, a draw and two defeats. They beat Venezia 3-1 at home and Pafos 3-1 at home in the UEFA Europa Conference League. They lost 3-2 away at AC Milan and 2-0 away at Ajax in Europe, then drew 4-4 at home against Frosinone.
The key matchup is Atalanta's goals against Fiorentina's leaky defence. Atalanta have scored 12 over their last five, all competitions, and netted three or more in three of them. Fiorentina have scored in all five of their recent games but average only 1.4 per game, with just one of the five reaching three goals. The concern at the back is that Fiorentina have conceded eight in that span and kept only one clean sheet. Atalanta have conceded 11 and shut out no one, so both defences have been giving up chances regularly.
The market sees the home side as slight favorites, with Atalanta not far behind and the draw a very live outcome. Home advantage at Stadio Artemio Franchi is part of that, set against Fiorentina's recent slide. The numbers point to an open game: Atalanta have seen four of their last five go past 3.5 total goals, and both sides have had three or more total goals in four of their last five. Past meetings are less clear-cut. The last two were low-scoring, and the two before them each produced five goals, so a tight afternoon is just as plausible as a shootout.
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Match Result | Total | Both Teams Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | FIO +115 DRAW +255 ATA +195 | O – U – | YES -195 NO +155 |
| BetMGM | FIO +115 DRAW +275 ATA +200 | O 2.5 -175 U 2.5 +125 | YES -200 NO +138 |
| BetRivers | FIO +112 DRAW +255 ATA +210 | O 2.5 -155 U 2.5 +118 | YES -186 NO +135 |
| Pinnacle | FIO +127 DRAW +273 ATA +207 | O – U – | YES -193 NO +163 |
| 1xBet | FIO +130 DRAW +278 ATA +217 | O 2.5 -140 U 2.5 +132 | YES -189 NO +137 |
Our Pick
Pick locked in Oct 27, 2026 at 5:31 PM ET — odds can move after that; current prices are in the Odds Comparison above.
The market favors the Over, and the recent scoring backs it. Four of Fiorentina's last five and four of Atalanta's last five reached 3+ combined goals, including Atalanta's 4-4 draw with Frosinone, and Atalanta has conceded in all five (11 allowed) while Fiorentina has given up 8. The last three meetings finished under this number, but those were previous-season games and current form is the stronger signal. BetRivers has the best price at -155.
Both teams to score at Yes (-186 at BetRivers) is worth a look. Fiorentina scored in all 5 of their last five games, and Atalanta have conceded in 5 of 5 while scoring in 4 of 5. Fiorentina have also conceded in 4 of their last 5.
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