Inter Milan vs Fiorentina Prediction, Pick & Odds
Inter Milan host Fiorentina at San Siro on Sunday, October 25, in round eight of the Serie A regular season. Inter come in with three wins in their last five across all competitions, while Fiorentina have lost their last two.
| Club | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
2
INT
Inter Milan
|
8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 10 | +13 | 22 | W W W D W |
|
18
FIO
Fiorentina
|
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 4 | L L L D W |
Model Intel
- Inter have scored in all five of their last five games, all competitions, averaging 2.4 goals per game
- Fiorentina have lost their last two, 1-2 away at Genoa and 1-3 at home against Como
- The last five Inter-Fiorentina meetings all finished under 3.5 total goals, with Inter winning three, drawing one and losing one
- The market makes Inter clear favorites at San Siro, with the draw still a live outcome
The Breakdown
Inter's last five games, all competitions, read three wins, a draw and a loss, with 12 goals scored and 7 conceded. Three of those games came in Serie A: a 2-2 draw away at AS Roma, a 3-0 win against Parma and a 3-1 win away at Bologna. The other two were Champions League matches, a 3-4 loss against Club Brugge KV and a 1-0 win against Shakhtar Donetsk. Fiorentina's run is W-W-D-L-L. They beat Venezia 4-2 away and Pisa 3-0 in the Coppa Italia, drew 1-1 with Napoli, then lost at Genoa and against Como in Serie A. The recent direction clearly favors Inter.
Inter have scored in every one of their last five games and reached three or more goals in three of them. They also kept clean sheets in two of five, though they conceded in the other three, including four against Club Brugge. Fiorentina have also scored in all of their last five, averaging 2 goals per game, but they have conceded in four of five and kept just one clean sheet, in the Coppa Italia win against Pisa. Fiorentina will probably get chances to score, but Inter's attack has been the more productive over this window.
The market sees Inter as strong favorites, with the home side at San Siro carrying most of the win probability and the draw ahead of an away win. The totals picture is mixed. Inter have played to four or more total goals in three of their last five, and both sides have been involved in plenty of goals recently. Yet all five recent head-to-head meetings stayed under 3.5 total goals, and the latest, a 1-1 draw on March 22, 2026, came in a previous season. A game where Inter control matters but Fiorentina find at least one goal fits both sides' recent scoring, though a more open game is also possible given how often Inter have conceded.
Our Pick
Pick locked in Oct 23, 2026 at 7:31 AM ET — odds can move after that; see the odds page for current prices.
Fiorentina scored in all five of their last five (10 goals), and Inter conceded in 3 of their last five (7 goals allowed, including 4 in a Champions League loss to Club Brugge), so both sides finding the net fits the recent form. Inter's moneyline is too short at -275 at best against a +425 draw, so Yes at DraftKings (-155, the best price offered) is the sharper way in.
Over 3.5 goals at +106 (BetRivers, +100 at BetMGM) is worth a look, and it is the plus-money, contrarian side since the market favors the Under at -137. Inter have cleared 3.5 total goals in 3 of their last 5 and averaged 2.4 goals scored, while Fiorentina have been in 3+ goal games in 4 of 5. Their recent meetings have all stayed under 3.5, so this leans on current form rather than head-to-head.
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