Toulouse vs Troyes Prediction, Pick & Odds

Toulouse host Troyes at Stadium Municipal in a Ligue 1 Regular Season round 8 fixture on Saturday, October 24. Toulouse have lost only once in their last five across all competitions, while Troyes have lost all five of theirs.

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The Breakdown

Toulouse's last five, all competitions, bring two wins, two draws and one defeat, with ten goals scored and seven conceded. They opened that run with a 1-0 home loss to Lille, drew 2-2 at Lorient and 2-2 at Monaco, beat Le Havre 3-2 at home and won 3-0 at Le Mans most recently. They scored in four of five and reached three goals twice. They have also conceded in four of five, so their games have tended to be eventful.

Troyes' last five, all competitions, make for a difficult read: five losses, three goals scored and fifteen conceded. They lost 6-2 at home to Strasbourg, 2-0 at Lille, 2-0 at Angers, 2-0 at home to Marseille and 3-1 at home against Lens. They have conceded in every game and failed to score in three, averaging 0.6 goals per game.

The key matchup pairs Toulouse's attack, which averages two goals per game over the last five, against a Troyes defence that has not kept a clean sheet in that run. Troyes' route to a result would rely on an attack that has managed a single goal in each of its two scoring games. Toulouse's own defence is less secure than their results suggest, with a clean sheet in only one of five, which is where Troyes' two scoring games, including that 3-1 home loss to Lens, offer some encouragement. Older meetings favoured Toulouse, including a 4-1 win in February 2023, but those results are roughly four years old and the squads have changed.

The numbers point to Toulouse as the more established side at home, with Troyes arriving on a five-game losing run. The shape is likely to be lopsided if Toulouse score early, since Troyes have conceded heavily on the road and at home alike. Toulouse's own habit of conceding means the visitors should not be written off for a goal, and the draw remains possible.

Our Pick

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