Monza vs Napoli Prediction, Pick & Odds
Monza host Napoli on Wednesday, October 28 (3:45 PM ET) in Serie A's Regular Season round 9. Monza's recent games have been consistently high-scoring, and Napoli have won three of the last five meetings between the sides.
| Club | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10
NAP
Napoli
|
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 11 | D L W D W |
|
15
MON
Monza
|
8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 7 | L W L W L |
Model Intel
- All five of Monza's last five games, all competitions, produced three or more total goals, and four produced four or more
- Napoli have averaged 2.2 goals per game over their last five, all competitions, including two Champions League matches
- Napoli have won the last three meetings, though four of the last five finished with fewer than three total goals
- Napoli have conceded in four of their last five, all competitions
The Breakdown
Monza's last five games have been a run of results with plenty of goals. They have won two and lost three, scoring 11 and conceding 10, and every one of the five produced at least three total goals. Four of them cleared four. Monza scored in every game, averaging 2.2 per game, though just one of those games saw them reach three goals, a 4-0 win at home against Cagliari. They conceded in four of five, with defeats away at Lecce, Lazio and Torino, all by one or two goals.
Napoli's last five, all competitions, are two wins, a draw and two defeats, with 11 scored and 10 conceded. Two of those games were in the Champions League, a 1-3 defeat away at Villarreal and a 4-3 win at home against Bodo/Glimt. Those belong to a different competition, but they show a side involved in open games. Their most recent result was a 3-3 draw at home against AS Roma. They have scored three or more in three of five and conceded in four of five.
The matchup pairs two sides with identical scoring averages, 2.2 goals per game, and leaky defensive records. Neither has more than one clean sheet in its last five. That points to a game where both teams can find the net, though Napoli have the better overall rating in the data, particularly on the defensive side. The head-to-head leans toward Napoli, who have won the last three meetings, including 1-0 away at Monza on April 19, 2025. Those meetings were mostly low-scoring, with four of the last five finishing under three total goals, which sits at odds with how both teams have played recently.
The market treats Napoli as favourites on the road, with Monza clear underdogs and the draw a live possibility. The recent scoring numbers suggest an open, goal-heavy game, though the head-to-head history shows tighter results are possible.
Update: the pick was changed from Under 2.5 to Over 2.5. The original pick leaned on head-to-head meetings from previous seasons over both teams' current form.
Odds Comparison
| Sportsbook | Match Result | Total | Both Teams Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | MON +320 DRAW +280 NAP -140 | O – U – | YES -160 NO +125 |
| BetMGM | MON +320 DRAW +280 NAP -125 | O 2.5 -150 U 2.5 +110 | YES -160 NO +110 |
| BetRivers | MON +340 DRAW +285 NAP -143 | O 2.5 -143 U 2.5 +110 | YES -150 NO +110 |
| Pinnacle | MON +349 DRAW +299 NAP -127 | O – U – | YES -151 NO +132 |
| 1xBet | MON +353 DRAW +312 NAP -123 | O 2.5 -138 U 2.5 +130 | YES -163 NO +119 |
Our Pick
Pick locked in Oct 28, 2026 at 12:10 AM ET — odds can move after that; current prices are in the Odds Comparison above.
Both sides arrive in high-scoring form. All five of Monza's last games, all competitions, produced three or more total goals and Monza conceded in every one of them, while Napoli have averaged 2.2 goals per game over their last five and conceded in four, including a 3-1 loss at Villarreal and a 4-3 win over Bodo/Glimt.
Both teams to score (Yes) at -145 (BetMGM) is a separate angle. Monza scored in all 5 of their last five and conceded in 4, while Napoli scored in 4 of 5 and conceded in 4 of 5.
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